Scotland's infectiously joyous, tartan-clad fan base. A 39 year old Lionel Messi, proving he's still the best in the world. The unpopularity of hydration breaks - perhaps the only thing every country’s fans agreed on. The 2026 World Cup introduced a wave of firsts to soccer’s biggest audience in history.
Among the new concepts for many were the sport's detailed performance metrics. From expected goals (xG) to passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA), these metrics gave fans a universal language to evaluate their favorite team and player performance with the same lens that the front offices of Arsenal and Real Madrid use to negotiate hundred-million-dollar contracts.
But it wasn't always like this. As the 23rd World Cup comes to a close, advertising is having its own ‘expected-goals moment’. Advanced performance metrics and purchase data have become available to marketers over the last few years, yet much of the industry remains anchored to the same proxy metrics it’s always used. If we look closer, professional soccer gives us a roadmap into what's possible for the advertising industry.
The proxy era in soccer, and advertising
Before 2014, advanced metrics in soccer existed, but in a very narrow lane, only discussed by niche insiders: stat-obsessed bloggers, data-driven professional teams, and sports betting circles. It was inside knowledge only available to those with specialized computer models, the definition of inside baseball. Front offices went through this same shift years before fans did, and for much higher stakes.
Before advanced metrics, scouts and analysts evaluated players based on what they could easily see with their eyes. Goals scored, a player’s reputation, and the ‘eye test’. Was the player well-liked? Did they simply score a few goals and have the look of the best players of their era?
Engagement, reach, site visits are marketing’s equivalent of the ‘eye test’. They correlate with business results now and again - enough to feel directionally trustworthy, and they reward what’s memorable and visible vs. what actually moved a purchase decision. At the end of the day, these are inferences. A site visit isn’t a sale, but in the absence of the latter, it has to stand in for one.
It’s not that proxy metrics were completely wrong. If a striker recorded tons of goals, they were probably a good player. An advertiser with consistently high volumes of site traffic likely has more sales than one with limited visits. But not always. Most importantly, proxy metrics don’t have the fidelity to tell you which specific decision to make. Over time, that has changed, and for the better.
Metrics that matter
The real inflection point in soccer was the World Cup in 2018. “xG”, or expected goals, became a mainstream broadcast graphic during that World Cup in Russia, so that every fan would see it, for 90+ minutes, every match. xG measures, on a scale from 0-1, how good a scoring chance was, based on a variety of factors. A tap-in from two yards might be worth 0.9. A speculative strike from 30 yards might be worth 0.03, because the odds of scoring are far lower. By the following World Cup in Qatar, this metric became a standard feature on official FIFA broadcasts and widely discussed by pundits. What used to be a novelty used only by soccer nerds and insiders became part of everyday language among avid fans.
Marketing has its own version of this shift underway. Purchase-based metrics like incremental sales and new buyer conversion rate are following the same path xG did, moving from a niche, insider metric to something every marketer is expected to understand. By evaluating sets of observed data based on real-world performance, answers that once had to be inferred became clear. In soccer, a team with far fewer shots but a much higher xG than their opponent dominated. They took fewer shots but created more scoring opportunities, and in nearly every case except for outliers, won the game. The advertiser attracted fewer, more valuable customers, and sold more products. Both scoreboards say the same thing: quality mattered more than volume.
Instead of site visits, advertisers could finally ask the questions that mattered: how much net-new revenue did this campaign generate? How many new buyers did it drive? None of it works without a real, observed record of what people actually buy.
Closing the loop with permissioned data
Attain was built based on this principle. Consumers explicitly opt in and share their real purchase transactions, so the data starts as observed purchase behavior rather than a guess at intent. A brand can see which specific media investment led to real world sales lift, the same way a club can see which players' performances led to a win. With a complete view of the consumer wallet, weighted against the U.S. census, brands get real answers for real business questions: who are my most valuable customers, and who are my lapsing customers buying from instead? What action should I take next to achieve our brand’s objectives?
Nine figure decisions
A nine-figure midfielder is worth every penny if his output holds up under real scrutiny once he's on the pitch. A nine-figure media partner is worth it the same way, if the incremental return on ad spend holds up once the campaign runs. Soccer teams were forced to stop guessing because the financial stakes got too high for the eye-test. A nine-figure midfielder who falls short of his expectations is a financial disaster, the same way a nine-figure media deal renewed on the strength of reputation and relationships alone.
Real Madrid didn’t pay a British transfer record of £115 million for Jude Bellingham off goals and murmurs among its expert analysts. They paid it because his pressing, his passing and carrying progression, and his output per 90 minutes checked out. The investment paid off. Five trophies in his first three seasons, including the Champions League and LaLiga, worth a combined £150 million.
Every year, marketers make nine-figure bets without the same performance data teams now demand. A brand renewing a media deal on reach and reputation is closer to a scout's eye test than real performance data. Learn too late that the growth came from buyers you already had, and you've ceded market share to competitors, first a little, then all at once. The market reacts faster than a 9-month soccer season.
Keeping score
Proxy metrics can give marketers a false sense of security that their decisions are backed by data. Soccer already made the trade. The clubs still relying on reputation and the eye test are losing ground, the same way brands relying on clicks and site visits are losing ground to competitors who can draw a direct line between their media investment and sales. Every club is accountable to its fans who want their team to win. Every CMO is accountable to a CFO asking for proof.
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